Let’s get this out of the way first — the Detroit Pistons don’t have a clear best option with the No. 5 overall pick Thursday in the 2022 NBA draft. But they do have several good options.
If they want to swing for upside, they can do that. Jaden Ivey could be off of the board before the Pistons make their selection, but his athleticism and playmaking ability would make him an enticing selection.
The same can be said of Shaedon Sharpe, who didn’t play a game in college but has the tools to become an elite wing.
If the Pistons are reluctant to gamble, there are safer options. Keegan Murray was one of the most productive players in college basketball last season. He may not have obvious superstar upside, but he looks like an above-average NBA starter. In this draft, that’s a good outcome for the fifth pick.
Bennedict Mathurin, too, should have a high floor thanks to his outside shooting.
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But here’s the question for the Pistons — can they afford to draft a bust? They have a franchise player in Cade Cunningham. To compete for a championship, they’ll certainly need at least one more All Star-caliber player next to him. But they also need more depth — players who can contribute to winning basketball. Ivey and Sharpe are enticing, but also have enough warts that there’s a real chance Murray and Mathurin will end up having better careers. Detroit can’t mess this pick up.
In my latest mock draft, I have the Pistons passing Mathurin and Sharpe to select Murray. Most draft analysts agree Murray may not have the upside of some of his counterparts, since he’ll be 22 when his rookie season starts. But upside is just that — upside. Players often don’t reach their best-case scenarios. Production matters and Murray dominated the Big Ten at Iowa last season. It’s easy to see his skills translating to the NBA.
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I believe the Pistons would be happy to select Murray, who is high on their draft board. There’s value in knowing exactly what you’re getting.
Murray is good-to-great at many things teams want from a modern power forward. He took 166 3-pointers last season and made 39.8%. He’s an elite finisher thanks to his touch, strength and footwork. He cuts, rebounds at a high rate, enjoys pushing the ball in transition and has strong enough defensive instincts to be a plus on that end. The Pistons could employ him in a variety of ways. Murray thrives without the ball. He would instantly make the offense more diverse.
By selecting Murray, the Pistons would also have greater incentive to move on from Jerami Grant. Now could be the best time for Detroit to deal Grant, who is eligible for an extension and will enter free agency next summer if he doesn’t sign one. If Detroit can acquire a first-round pick this year for Grant, it makes sense to capitalize and draft his replacement.
General manager Troy Weaver appears to like high-effort, low-maintenance prospects and has preached the importance of building an unselfish, hard-working culture. From that standpoint, Murray fits right in. He is smart, knows his role and doesn’t crave the spotlight. Cunningham, Saddiq Bey, Isaiah Stewart and Killian Hayes are cut from a similar cloth.
There’s a thought the Pistons need to prioritize upside over all else in this draft. I don’t disagree, but this draft doesn’t have the depth you’d want for them to go that route.
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Ivey is an imperfect fit next to Cunningham, as both players are best with the ball in their hands and Cunningham is an all-around better player. Ivey is an elite downhill athlete and a highlight-reel dunker, but he was also an inconsistent shooter, defender and passer at Purdue. Cunningham’s ideal backcourt partner is a strong defender and shooter who can create offense without the ball. That’s not Ivey’s game, and he’d have to improve dramatically to thrive in Detroit.
Sharpe is a mystery. He dominated high school competition, and his athleticism and shooting ability theoretically give him good odds at becoming a high-impact NBA wing. But no one knows if he’ll actually be good. It’s tough to project given his lack of tape. He’s in the mix, but fifth overall may be too high a swing for him.
Murray is not perfect. He has to prove he’s quick enough on defense to hang with guards on the perimeter and strong enough on to hold his own in the paint. He’s also not much of a playmaker. He can attack closeouts, but he’s an average passer at best and won’t break opposing players down off-the-dribble. But, the Pistons can live with those offensive shortcomings considering how good he is as a shooter and around the rim.
Murray is the safest prospect in the draft, and that should not be viewed as a negative. This draft doesn’t have the same star power as last year. With Cunningham already in tow, Detroit should feel good about simply taking a sure thing.
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It seems foolish to rule out the possibility Murray may have more star power than given credit for. He’s a late-bloomer and improved dramatically between his freshman and sophomore seasons in college. Desmond Bane and Jalen Brunson were 22 as rookies and have emerged as key starters for the upstart Dallas Mavericks and Memphis Grizzlies. They’re still getting better.
Murray could certainly follow in their footsteps.
Contact Omari Sankofa II at osankofa@freepress.com. Follow him on Twitter @omarisankofa. Read more on the Detroit Pistons and sign up for our Pistons newsletter.