The optimism surrounding the Detroit Pistons entering this season might be the highest it’s been in more than a decade.
Good drafting is the biggest reason why. The Pistons exited the 2022 draft with two of its most athletic and highest-upside players in Jaden Ivey and Jalen Duren. Under Troy Weaver, Detroit has added six first-round picks — and four lottery picks — in three years. Cade Cunningham has lived up to expectations as the face of the franchise. Isaiah Stewart and Saddiq Bey have become two of the better players in their draft class, and Killian Hayes, who turned 21 years old three weeks ago, has shown enough to warrant a further look.
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Rather than chase big-name free agents or trade for star-level talent, the franchise has gone all-in on player development and building through the draft. It’s too early to predict if, and when, it’ll pay off. But the team is eager to see what this season will bring.
“I think just the mindset is we’re all hungry to get the season started, get going together and prove ourselves in the league,” Cunningham said during summer league in Las Vegas last month. “Like you said, super young core. Nobody’s going to give us anything but we’re ready to go out and prove ourselves. I think we have a lot of talent to do it.”
There’s been no public “playoff or play-in” mandate for 2022-23. The franchise has exercised patience in its rebuild, and the front office’s offseason approach this summer — cashing in significant cap space on salary dumps and additional assets, rather than on an expensive free agent — further implies the Pistons aren’t speeding their rebuild timeline up yet.
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But there’s reason to think Detroit will improve on last year’s 23-59 record. The young core will be more experienced. Some players were pushed into bigger roles last year when Jerami Grant missed 35 games and Kelly Olynyk missed 42. The Pistons won 11 of their final 25 games and the players are hopeful that momentum carries over.
“I think the team being able to feel that and us being able to feel getting some wins, getting some momentum going for ourselves, having that thought on our minds throughout the whole offseason of trying to work, trying to get better,” Cunningham said during his end-of-season press conference. “We know where we’re trying to get to. It’s exciting for all of us. I think we’re all ready to take that next step and try to get to the playoffs and try to compete for wins. We’re all ready to get to the offseason and try to get better.”
How likely is it the Pistons make a playoff push? Let’s survey the rest of the conference.
Tough road in Eastern Conference
For more than two decades, the Western Conference has dominated the East. Last season was different, as the top 10 teams in the Eastern Conference finished with winning records. Most of those teams are positioned to be just as good, if not better, this season.
The Miami Heat (53-29), Boston Celtics (51-31), Milwaukee Bucks (51-31), Philadelphia 76ers (51-31), Toronto Raptors (48-34), Chicago Bulls (46-36), Brooklyn Nets (44-38), Cleveland Cavaliers (44-38), Atlanta Hawks (43-39) and Charlotte Hornets (43-39) all ended the season above .500. Of that group, the Nets and Hornets are most likely to take a significant step back. Brooklyn is looking to resolve an ongoing standoff with Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving, who both could be traded before opening night. Charlotte is currently in limbo with breakout star, Flint native and Michigan State alumnus Miles Bridges, who has yet to sign an extension after pleading not guilty to three domestic violence charges.
That would leave two postseason spots up for grabs. The New York Knicks, who finished last season with 37 wins, made a significant investment in breakout guard Jalen Brunson. The Pistons will likely compete with the Washington Wizards (35 wins), Indiana Pacers (25 wins) and Orlando Magic (22 wins) for the final spot.
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Of the three teams, the Magic could make the most significant leap forward. Orlando added first overall pick Paolo Banchero, and big man Jonathan Isaac, one of the most gifted defenders in the NBA, is on pace to return to the floor after suffering an ACL tear two years ago. Jalen Suggs, last year’s fifth overall pick, could be positioned for a breakout year after an uneven rookie season.
The Wizards largely treaded water this offseason, but they were still 12 games better than Detroit last season. The Pacers, too, could be in a similar tier as last year as their most significant move was adding Bennedict Mathurin with the sixth overall pick.
Internal improvement will dictate season
The extent that the Pistons are able to improve largely depends on how much they’re able to improve on last season’s deficiencies.
The Pistons’ most pressing concern is outside shooting; they ranked 27th last year and hit 3s at a paltry 33.6% . Alec Burks, a career 38% 3-point shooter, should provide a massive lift in that area. The organization is betting that Cunningham, Hayes and Stewart will all improve on their below-average marks last season, and that a bigger role for Isaiah Livers helps ease spacing issues.
Even if the Pistons improve, they’ll likely have to finish at least close to .500 to earn a play-in berth. Some may be bullish on a possible 20-game improvement, similar to what the Cavaliers did last season. The smart money is on the team making a more modest improvement this season and Detroit making one more lottery pick before making a bigger leap in 2023-24.
A play-in bid may be on the table, though the margin for error will be slim.
Contact Omari Sankofa II at osankofa@freepress.com. Follow him on Twitter @omarisankofa. Read more on the Detroit Pistons and sign up for our Pistons newsletter.