As your humble servant running this website, my duty is to provide you with unbridled optimism, healthy skepticism, and reasonable pragmatism regarding your Detroit Pistons. Sometimes that is a tough needle to thread. But how does this one hit you?
The Detroit Pistons should expect to improve by more than 10 games this season. In fact, it wouldn’t be unreasonable for them to double their win total compared to last year. If and when they accomplish this feat, they will still a bottom-10 NBA team hovering around the 5-8th worst record in the NBA.
Yes, we can see better basketball on the court, a big increase in win totals, and still root for a team that has a 40% chance at a top-4 pick in a stacked NBA Draft.
How’d I do?
The offseason is for ruminating over questions that sometimes have simple answers. I started this piece by giving myself a pretty straightforward prompt — how does the NBA’s worst team typically fare the following season?
NBA’s Worst to NBA’s ???
The answer since 2008 is, unless you’re the Pistons of last year, better. I looked back through the data since the last time Detroit had a winning record. In those 17 seasons, teams typically saw their winning percentage jump 76% from their previous season in the cellar. The average increase in wins stands at 10.4.
There are certainly outliers. The Miami Heat went from 15 wins to 43 between 2007-08 to 2008-09. That coincided with the arrival of Erik Spoelstra and a healthy Dwayne Wade. The 2014-15 Milwaukee Bucks jumped from 15 to 41 wins as Giannis started to understand how to dominate. The Warriors had an aberrant horrible season and then went back to their winning ways.
NBA’s Worst Teams the Next Season
| Year | Team | Record | Win% | Next Season Record | Win% | Change | Game Dif |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Team | Record | Win% | Next Season Record | Win% | Change | Game Dif |
| 2023-24 | Detroit Pistons | 14-68 | 0.171 | ??? | ??? | ??? | ??? |
| 2022-23 | Detroit Pistons | 17-65 | 0.207 | 14-68 | 0.171 | -17.4 | -3 |
| 2021-22 | Houston Rockets | 20-62 | 0.244 | 22-60 | 0.268 | 9.8 | 2 |
| 2020-21 | Houston Rockets | 17-55 | 0.236 | 20-62 | 0.244 | 3.4 | 3 |
| 2019-20 | Golden State Warriors | 15-50 | 0.231 | 39-33 | 0.542 | 134.6 | 24 |
| 2018-19 | New York Knicks | 17-65 | 0.207 | 21-45 | 0.318 | 53.6 | 4 |
| 2017-18 | Phoenix Suns | 21-61 | 0.256 | 19-63 | 0.232 | -9.4 | -2 |
| 2016-17 | Brooklyn Nets | 20-62 | 0.244 | 28-54 | 0.341 | 39.8 | 8 |
| 2015-16 | Philadelphia 76ers | 10-72 | 0.122 | 28-54 | 0.341 | 179.5 | 18 |
| 2014-15 | Minnesota Timberwolves | 16-66 | 0.195 | 29-53 | 0.354 | 81.5 | 13 |
| 2013-14 | Milwaukee Bucks | 15-67 | 0.183 | 41-41 | 0.5 | 173.2 | 26 |
| 2012-13 | Orlando Magic | 20-62 | 0.244 | 23-59 | 0.28 | 14.8 | 3 |
| 2011-12 | Charlotte Bobcats | 7-59 | 0.106 | 21-60 | 0.256 | 141.5 | 14 |
| 2010-11 | Minnesota Timberwolves | 17-65 | 0.207 | 26-40 | 0.394 | 90.3 | 9 |
| 2009-10 | New Jersey Nets | 12-70 | 0.146 | 24-58 | 0.293 | 100.7 | 12 |
| 2008-09 | Sacramento Kings | 17-65 | 0.207 | 25-57 | 0.305 | 47.3 | 8 |
| 2007-08 | Miami Heat | 15-67 | 0.183 | 43-39 | 0.524 | 186.3 | 28 |
| 76.9 | 10.4375 |
Detroit has Markedly Improved (But is Still Bad)
I’m not sure we should expect the Pistons to jump 20 wins in one offseason like some others have done, but I also wouldn’t discount the potential for a huge improvement from Detroit.
They replaced a mismatched coach given a mismatched roster led by an overmatched executive with new leadership, a new coach, and plenty of veterans that not only hit shots but rarely miss games to injury.
An influx in veteran competence and availability with some natural progression from a stable of young, developing players is a good mix for a 10-14-win improvement for Detroit.
Saying a team could double is win total feels like grading on a curve in this case because we’re starting from the absolute dregs of incompetence. Doubling up would mean a 28-win season. That is only a slight lift from the average 76% rise in winning percentage, which would net out to a 25-win season and a .300 winning percentage for the Pistons.
NBA Lottery’s Lack of Luck
Poor Tobias Harris has been catching strays ever since he signed in Philadelphia four years ago. Inking a new deal did not spare him mockery from the terminally online NBA fan or from pundits.
The biggest knock on the Pistons deal was that an awful team would have no reason to give Harris so much money just to be slightly less embarrassing. Selfishly, I am eager to watch some semi-competent NBA ball so slightly less embarrassing sounds great to me.
Second, it’s not like the signing sends Detroit right into NBA purgatory. The team will still be bad, and the flattened lottery odds mean they only have a marginally worse roll of the dice than when the franchise was addicted to finishing in the bottom three.
Last season, the 36-win Atlanta Hawks jumped nine spots, and the Houston Rockets (via the Brooklyn Nets) jumped six. We shouldn’t expect quite that level of madness again, but the Pistons of the previous four years are the poster child for how the new lottery odds have blunted the motivation for losing on purpose. They have dropped four, four, and two spots, picking fifth each time, in the past three drafts.
Losing on purpose ain’t it. Counting on old, injured players ain’t it. Relying almost exclusively on 22-year-old players ain’t it. Hiring Monty Williams ain’t it.
The Pistons finally have some roster balance, some much-needed shooting, an environment where it’s young players can improve, and the ability to easily reshape its roster as things start to actually click into place.
Finally, we can say the Pistons should be much better (but still bad), and fans can enjoy some basketball again.