Jaden Ivey, the fifth pick of the Detroit Pistons in the 2022 NBA Draft, has had an uneven start to his career. In his rookie year, after Cade Cunningham went down with an injury, Jaden took on a lot of primary ballhandling duties. In that capacity, he showed real flashes of excellence (my mind always goes back to a loss against the Raptors where he made a bunch of nice plays in the fourth quarter). Conversely, in year two, under Monty Williams, Jaden was yanked around in terms of role and minutes distribution. Relatedly, he looked completely unsure of himself, and his shot and his overall play was inconsistent as hell.
Year three is not a make-or-break-year for his career – Jaden Ivey is definitely an NBA-level guard in the way that we cannot say about, to pull a name completely randomly from thin air, Killian Hayes. However, in terms of expectations, this is the year we answer a lot of questions about Ivey.
Is Jaden Ivey a starting-level guard or a high-impact bench guard? Is he a “Fun Max” (the post-rookie maximum contract) player or a guy who has to hit restricted free agency to get a second contract? Is he a complement or a supplement to Cade Cunningham? These are the questions Pistons fans should get an answer to by March 2025.
Offensive Expectations
Jaden Ivey’s role in the rotation appears blessedly clear: Start next to Cade Cunningham, then stagger with him to helm mostly- or all-bench units. When next to Cade, you want to see Jaden make open threes consistently, run second-side pick and rolls when the ball reverses, and use his speed and athleticism to pick up easy buckets in the half-court offense via cuts and dumpoff passes.
When Jaden is piloting bench units, you want him initiating the offense cleanly, and keeping his turnovers low (also fewer of the “what the heck was he thinking” variety). Ivey was a very productive player in isolation situations last season, but at times it felt very stagnant, eight guys on the court watching Ivey and his defender dance with each other. Especially when he’s running the bench lineups, you’d love to see Ivey keep the ball moving, keep other guys involved in the offense, and offload the decision-making burden to his teammates.
Thankfully, we’ve seen great signs so far in preseason play. Yes, Jaden has shot the lights out (53% from three will PROBABLY not hold over the course of the regular season), and that helps. More importantly, though, things have just been simplified for Jaden. Yes, this is the sizzle reel, but look how few dribbles are involved:
To that earlier isolation point, fewer dribbles equals a more decisive, better Jaden Ivey. So far, new head coach JB Bickerstaff has asked Jaden Ivey to do less, and gotten more.
Defensive Expectations
Jaden has been a neutral-to-negative defensive player through two seasons, despite his athletic gifts. Obviously, you’d like him to trend more towards neutral, but the thing to look for on that end from Jaden is Technique and Effort. Can Jaden navigate ball screens more adroitly? If he gets screened, is he just out of the play, or can he fight to regain position – or rotate where he’s supposed to be? Off the ball, is he attentive and in position?
To Jaden’s credit, he’s shown increased effort and activity on defense in the preseason. Active hands in passing lanes, better rotations. He’s picked up fullcourt defensively sometimes, which you hope speaks to his engagement on that end of the floor.
Last but not least, with Jaden’s athleticism, one easy way to add value defensively is to be a great positional rebounder. It’s tough because crashing the glass conflicts with leaking out in transition – but ending possessions is a great way to contribute defensively (and it’s a need for the starting lineup if the career 5.9% rebound rate Tim Hardaway Jr. and career 10.8% rebound rate Tobias Harris continue to be the frontcourt).
Overall Expectations
I want to keep expectations realistic for Jaden. He doesn’t have to average 20 points a night or be an All-Star. A reasonable goal he should have for the season is play well enough the Pistons don’t want to test the restricted free agency market and just extend him right away. Again, it doesn’t have to be a post-rookie max contract. There are plenty of guys in previous draft classes who got extended – Cole Anthony (3/$39), Aaron Nesmith (3/$33), Coby White (3/$36), Deni Avdija (4/$49), Herb Jones (4/$53)… what does Cam Thomas get paid? Something in that neighborhood.
If he does that, Jaden will solidify himself in the Pistons’ plans for the long term, really all you can ask for from a third-year guy.