It’s about to be a very interesting season for both the Detroit Pistons and the NBA at large.
Can Detroit get out of its own way? Will the franchise finally move forward instead of backward? Can anyone catch the Boston Celtics in the race for the NBA title?
The DBB staff gave thoughts and predictions on, well, pretty much everything in this larger-than-normal edition of DBB on 3.
Let’s get to the fun!
1. The betting line on Pistons wins this season is 25.5. Are you taking the over or the under and why?
Sean Corp: I’m taking the over. Yes, the offense should clearly be improved by the stable of reliable veterans the team has added. But the reason I actually believe is how much more engaged the team has looked on the defensive end. They won’t be world beaters under JB Bickerstaff, but they are buying in and he is teaching solid principles. That’s all I needed to see.
Laz Jackson: Over. After a solid preseason with good vibes and great spacing, I buy that this team will resemble a regular middling-to-bad NBA team. Not wondering what the hell Monty Williams is gonna do tonight does wonders for MY mental health, I can’t imagine how good some of the guys in that locker room are feeling right now.
Ben Gulker: Under. Fool me…how many times? Health is the X factor. Langdon brought in vets with histories of durability, which is all you can ask, but the young guys have missed a lot of games. If they all improve incrementally and stay healthy, I hope I just lost some money.
Brady Fredericksen: I’m going to take the over here, too. Stability itself is going to be worth a lot — not to mention a coaching staff and front office that appears to have an actual plan — and the development from the core combined with veterans who fit will make for a better and infinitely more enjoyable on-court product.
Justin Lambregetse: I am confidently hitting the over and I think the Pistons could hover around 30 wins. A 13 win improvement is a lot, especially after a historically bad season, but the context around that historically bad season is important to consider. Everything Troy Weaver and Monty Williams did last season was extremely damaging to the team and just simply removing those 2 will improve things a lot.
Wes Davenport: I refuse to give any betting advice. But I do think the Pistons will win 26 games this year. A nice 12 win improvement over last season and we get to find out which of these young guys (Cade, Ivey, Ausar, Duren, Stew) from last year are actually core building blocks (I’m hoping for 3, but realistically, it’s probably 2).
Kyle Metz: I’m taking the over. Tobias makes more of a difference than many outside of Michigan give him credit for. Cade’s efficiency improves, Beef Stew is in his best position to succeed, and Duren might actually care on defense. I also think Ron Holland has a bigger impact on this team than most expect, specifically the second half of the season. Here’s hoping JB is closer to Dan Campbell than Matt Patricia in terms of his culture-building.
Blake Silverman: If I was a betting man, I’d take the over but I don’t feel great about it. The Pistons’ offseason moves are all geared toward taking a leap, but I’m still in wait and see mode. Last season was a bit of an anomaly. Everything that could go wrong did go wrong and the losing streak just wouldn’t die. Because the Pistons won so few games last year, winning 12 more games seems reasonable compared to other teams across the league. With how poorly the last few years, or decade, have gone though, I’m not holding my breath. I believe in Trajan Langdon’s vision and J.B. Bickerstaff’s execution, but as far as the number of wins goes, I need to see it with my own two eyes.
Ben Quagliata: I say this every year but I’m taking the over, mainly because the baseline for this team should be much higher. The defence will be up and down but the floor for this offense should mean we have less games of 6 minute stretches of absolute futility. Going from key acquisitions like Joe Harris and Monte Morris (who I still maintain was a good pickup if not for the injury) to guys like Tobias Harris, Malik Beasley and Tim Hardaway Jr, three guys who all bring discernible NBA skillsets for the 2024 version of the game, should give the offense more release valves besides “throw the ball to Cade and hope for the best.”
Robbie Bettelon: I’m lucky enough to have an o22.5 ticket from July, but I would still take the over at 25.5. Out of the 31 Pistons that played NBA minutes last year, only seven are returning to Detroit. Eight of those players found a new home and the other sixteen players did not make a 15-man roster. There’s going to be addition by subtraction now that Troy Weaver is no longer acquiring non-NBA players and Monty Williams is no longer playing them. After an offseason of adding competent vets who can shoot, I think Detroit is now built like a real NBA team that will do a better job of competing every night.
Brennan Sims: Let’s get rowdy and take the over. Thirty is the goal, and with proven NBA players, it’s not as lofty as it appears.
2. For the Pistons to have success this season, which two returning players must make the biggest jump?
Sean Corp: Jaden Ivey and Jalen Duren. I’m sure that is quite a popular response, but what can you do when you’re talking about two core young players who are seemingly in line for spots in the starting lineup who have big things to prove? Jaden Ivey’s reason has been exactly what you’d want to see. Playing smart, calm, under control, decisive, and with a much smoother looking jumper that might actually be legit. Duren has not made as significant a leap on the defensive end, but he’s active and I think the coach is installing a system that will work for him and for the team.
Laz Jackson: Jalen Duren and Ausar Thompson. Jalen Duren has to – HAS TO – make improvements on the defensive end of the ball for the Pistons to hit that over, and Ausar has to A) get on the court and B) be able to stay on the court to fly around and cause havoc and be the tip of the spear defensively in a way that no one else on the roster really has the potential to do.
Ben Gulker: Cade Cunningham and Jalen Duren. Cade finished his rookie and third (redshirt second?) seasons strong but started them both slowly. Hopefully a fully healthy offseason means a consistently excellent Cade, because the team is going as far as he takes them. As the starting big, Jalen Duren needs to defend like one. Aforementioned health concerns matter here – those ankles never seemed to get right after early sprains last season, and his defense never did either.
Brady Fredericksen: It’s Ivey and Duren. They’ve flashed, but had endured a never-ending shit show over the course of their first two seasons. Show me an Ivey who competes on defense and has a defined role on offense where he can attack with the ball + a Duren who disrupts more defensively and uses his passing skills to lube up a stagnant offense and I’ll be a happy camper because that’s huge for this franchise.
Justin Lambregetse: Cade and Ivey. Cade has already started to make the jump, but he needs to build off of that if the Pistons have any hope this season. For Jaden Ivey, last season couldn’t have gone much worse. He has the potential to be a very good player in the NBA and now is the time to show it while playing on a roster that is much more coherent and built for young players to thrive. If Ivey doesn’t make a jump, it is going to be very difficult for the Pistons to get where they want to get this season.
Wes Davenport: Cade and Ivey. This will not be a good defensive team. The easy answer is to say Jalen Duren will be possessed by the spirit of Ben Wallace, but that’s not a realistic hope or expectation. More likely would be Cade and Ivey taking steps forward. If Cade can vault himself into all-star consideration and further improve his three-point shooting and playmaking efficiency, that would be a massive boost for the Pistons. Similarly, if Jaden Ivey can become the scorer many thought he would be out of Purdue (foul merchant, efficient finisher, ok shooter and playmaker), the Pistons would be significantly better off. Tobias Harris slotting in as the third option rather than the second really levels up the offensive ceiling of this group, and offense is how this team will win games.
Kyle Metz: Duren’s defense is the X factor for this season and his future in the league. If he can be an average defender, this team has the potential to be functional and competent. Ausar building on his defense and finding a consistent role on offense would also take this team to another level and provide more lineup flexibility.
Blake Silverman: Cade Cunningham and Jalen Duren. The Pistons’ need for a leap from Cunningham is clear, can he become an All-Star and top option on a competitive team? I think he can. He’s surrounded by players who better complement his game, now he just has to run with it. Easier said than done, of course, but Cunningham has met and succeeded expectations already and he seems to only get better. For Duren, he’s already a beast offensively and on the glass. He can handle the ball and has good vision for a big, too. We all know it, but he has to get better defensively. Be that rim protector and defensive “quarterback” that the team needs. Make Langdon confident in offering an extension next summer. If Duren isn’t at least a neutral defender this season, the Pistons may have to reevaluate whether they want to invest in a starting five who doesn’t stretch the floor or play solid defense.
Ben Quagliata: Cade is the boring answer so I’ll go the two more-maligned young players from last season, Jaden Ivey and Jalen Duren. If preseason is any indication, Ivey will be staggered more with Cade and be responsible for the second unit, pending acquiring another veteran PG. If that’s the case, the second unit, which struggled mightily last season, will sink or swim with him, and although it was preseason I was encouraged by the early returns. Duren is a harder one to quantify because his rebounding makes him stand out, but if his defensive positioning and awareness can even get to something resembling league-average then that can really help Detroit stay in more games.
Robbie Bettelon: Cade Cunningham and Jalen Duren. Detroit’s ceiling rests on Cade’s shoulders, and the faster he gets to stardom, the better Detroit will be. Yet, the Pistons also need to make strides defensively, too. A great defensive anchor can protect the rim from all five opposing players and that’s why that role is so important. If JD can make strides defensively this season under Bickerstaff, we’re looking at a potentially elite inside center on both sides of the ball.
Brennan Sims: Cade Cunningham needs to reach the All-Star level. The other #1 picks around drafted in his era (Paolo, Ant Edwards, Wemby, Zion) have all made the All-Star game or will make it this year off sheer hype. Cade is a good player, but he needs to be great if this turnaround will happen. Jaden Ivey has to be the offensive weapon they drafted him for. The decision-making and jump shot needs to be more consistent. He will do it.
3. With new faces aplenty, which newcomer (players and coaches) do you have the highest expectations for?
Sean Corp: A tie, and I’m afraid my answer is probably once against not very creative. Tobias Harris needs to provide roughly 90% of what Bojan Bogdanovic provided on offense, and 250% of what Bojan Bogdanovic provided on defense. If you ask me, I think he’ll clear both bars. The other is JB Bickerstaff. Trajan Langdon invested roughly $60 million via free agency and trades in addressing needs on the offensive side of the ball. That meant all the defensive improvement was the responsibility of JB Bickerstaff getting the most out of this young, developing team. Early returns are good, but this team isn’t going to sniff 25 wins if they are a 28th-ranked defense.
Laz Jackson: Just read what Kyle says about Tobias Harris below. Those are my thoughts exactly.
Ben Gulker: After seeing Ron Holland play and relish defense and his athleticism hold up at the NBA level, I think Pistons fans will fall in love with him. I’m not sure how much impact will be immediate, but I am very excited about the long-term possibilities.
Brady Fredericksen: I think the probable answer here is Tobias Harris, but I’m going to say Malik Beasley. I think he’s one of the best shooters in the league and a guy who brings swagger and confidence every time he’s on the court. He’s not a perfect player, but he fills an obvious need and has played for some really good teams — knowing what it takes to win ball games is a needed trait and guys like Beasley, Harris and Tim Hardaway Jr. will all bring it to the team this season.
Justin Lambregetse: Probably Tobias Harris. If you ask Sixers fans, he is the worst player in the NBA, but his skill set fits perfectly with what the Pistons need now and even if he is slowing down a bit as he ages, his game isn’t predicated that much on athleticism. He can be a great tertiary scoring option alongside Cade and Ivey and also won’t be played off the floor defensively or miss games due to injury.
Wes Davenport: Probably Tobias Harris. Easy answer, I know, but his role will be important nonetheless. A steady and efficient scorer who’s been around the block and can be a leader in the lockerroom is exactly what this group lacked last season. Harris doesn’t need to reinvent himself, but if he can be the same great player he’s been with the Clippers and 76ers I will be extremely happy.
Kyle Metz: Tobias is the obvious answer for many reasons. He is currently the highest paid player on the team, plays a position that the Pistons have been essentially missing since trading away Jerami Grant, and fits very well next to the team’s best player. I expect Tobias to come in and functionally be the number two next to Cade (even though I suspect Ivey will end up as the second leading scorer when all is said and done); he should be able to punish teams when they blitz Cade, carry some of the offensive load so Cade can give more energy on defense, and not be a total liability on defense himself.
Blake Silverman: Malik Beasley. The Pistons haven’t had someone who can shoot the ball the way Beasley can in what feels like forever. He showed in preseason he can do more than just shoot, too, although I’m not sure that will be his role in Detroit. I expect Beasley to be a knockdown threat for Cunningham or Ivey to kick out to on the perimeter. Playoff teams will likely be interested in Beasley’s services come the trade deadline, so maybe he could fetch Langdon a draft pick or two, as well. For now, just get those shots up in bunches, Beas.
Ben Quagliata: I don’t know if I have high expectations for any of the new arrivals in free agency because I kind of feel like we know what we’re getting with Harris, Beasley and Hardaway Jr so I’m going to go a bit left field here with Ron Holland. I don’t think he’ll play a ton of minutes when the games start to count, at least not right away, but I also think he’s closer to a more defined and consistent impact role on this team than people might think, being one of the few actual semi-reliable defenders on the roster. Offensively there’ll be some rollercoaster moments, but if he plays defence with the same enthusiasm and “eff you” attitude like we saw in preseason, especially against the Suns, then he could figure more prominently as the season goes on, especially as the status around Ausar continues to be murky. I also considered Fred Vinson here but the man isn’t a miracle worker so that felt unfair.
Robbie Bettelon: After seeing Ron Holland play and relish defense and his athleticism hold up at the NBA level, I think Pistons fans will fall in love with him. I’m not sure how much impact will be immediate, but I am very excited about the long-term possibilities.
Brennan Sims: I expect Malik Beasley to carry over his volcanic volume 3-point shooting. Tobias Harris is the better player, but what Beasley does is the most important thing for Detroit. He got signed to a one-year prove-it deal this offseason, so there’s an internal motivation for Beasley to let it fly efficiently this year.
4. Where will the Pistons finish in the Eastern Conference and will they make the play-in tournament?
Sean Corp: The Pistons will finish 11th in the Eastern Conference, and they will not make the play-in tournament. And we will enjoy the season! Haven’t been able to say that since 2020, and that is already grading on a generous curve.
Laz Jackson: The Pistons will finish 12th in the conference, ahead of Brooklyn, Washington, and (Not-so-secretly terrible? Extremely guard-heavy all of a sudden? Man that’s a lotta Jalen Smith and Matas Buzelis?) Chicago. They won’t make the play-in, but they’ll be frisky.
Ben Gulker: They will be better and win more games than a season ago, but I still see them as a lottery team and missing the play-in. I think Langdon has the roster where Weaver thought he did a year ago, complementary role players filling out coherent rotations with developing young players who will compete every night and be in most games.
Brady Fredericksen: They’ll be in the race… but I don’t think they make it. This is less a reflection of my feelings on the Pistons and more the bottom of the East, where it seems seems like everyone is more focused on Cooper Flagg than winning games. Detroit probably finishes 11th or 12th, and that means we might have meaningful late-season basketball at LCA for the first time in six years.
Justin Lambregetse: I think the Pistons finish just outside the play-in tournament, but they are at least playing meaningful games down the stretch before ultimately not doing enough to get in. For such a young team, playing all 82 games like they matter is important as it is something that none of the young players have done.
Wes Davenport: Near the bottom and no.
Kyle Metz: I feel confident that the Pistons will finish above the Wizards, Nets, and Raptors. If the Hornets continue to struggle with health, I can see the Pistons passing them as well. If the Bulls can manage to trade LaVine by the trade deadline, Pistons finish higher. That’s a lot of “ifs”, but I expect one of those things (or something similar) to happen. So I think the Pistons end the season as the 11th seed, just missing the play-in (exactly where I suspect this front office wants to end up this year to keep their pick)
Blake Silverman: I’m going to go pretty safe here. I think the Pistons will win between 26 and 29 games and finish 12th in the East. That doesn’t put them in the play-in tournament, but it’s still an improvement. Last season, the Toronto Raptors finished 12th and won 25 games. Above them was Brooklyn who won 32. I think the Pistons will fit somewhere in the middle there and I think they can be better than Washington and Brooklyn, then one of Toronto, Chicago or Charlotte. Some of those teams will be better than we think, others won’t. Missing the play-in is fine, that shouldn’t be an expectation this year. Langdon has said publicly he is in asset accumulation mode, which doesn’t equate to postseason basketball. Next year should be a different story, though. If the Pistons did make a play-in push this season, however, it would sure be fun.
Ben Quagliata: I think they’ll be in the play-in race for the majority of the season. The bottom of the Eastern Conference is bad and the Pistons can find it in themselves to be just as, if not more competitive than the likes of Washington, Brooklyn, Toronto, Atlanta, Charlotte and Chicago. Ultimately though if I was to put a prediction on it I think this team as is might be a bit too porous defensively and there’ll still be a fair share of frustrating losses, so I’ll settle in at 12th.
Robbie Bettelon: There will be more tanking teams this year and while I think Detroit wants to show improvement, I don’t think Trajan wants to make a play-in game. A top five pick in this draft class is going to land you a future piece and I don’t think we’re ready to give this endlessly-protected draft pick away yet. Give me 28 wins and the 11th seed.
Brennan Sims: The Pistons will be better than the Wizards and Nets; you can lock that in. Their ceiling is high enough to compete with the Raptors and Hornets of the world, but everything is contingent on Cade and Ivey taking those leaps mentioned above. Duren would be at least neutral defensively, and the team’s 3-point shooting must greatly improve. Anywhere around the 13th to 10th spot (play-in bound!) is realistic for Detroit.
BONUS ROUND!
Most Valuable Player
Sean Corp: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Laz Jackson: Gilgeous-Alexander
Ben Gulker: Gilgeous-Alexander
Brady Fredericksen: Gilgeous-Alexander
Justin Lambregetse: Luka Doncic
Wes Davenport: Giannis Antetokounmpo
Kyle Metz: Gilgeous-Alexander
Blake Silverman: Jayson Tatum
Ben Quagliata: Doncic
Robbie Bettelon: Gilgeous-Alexander
Brennan Sims: Gilgeous-Alexander
Rookie of the Year
Sean Corp: Reed Sheppard
Laz Jackson: Zach Edey
Ben Gulker: Edey
Brady Fredericksen: Sheppard
Justin Lambregetse: Sheppard
Wes Davenport: Stephon Castle
Kyle Metz: Edey
Blake Silverman: Matas Buzelis
Ben Quagliata: Edey
Robbie Bettelon: Sheppard
Brennan Sims: Buzelis
Sixth Man of the Year
Sean Corp: Donte DiVincenzo
Laz Jackson: DiVincenzo
Ben Gulker: Naz Reid
Brady Fredericksen: DiVincenzo
Justin Lambregetse: Reid
Wes Davenport: Buddy Hield
Kyle Metz: DiVincenzo
Blake Silverman: Miles McBride
Ben Quagliata: Malik Monk
Robbie Bettelon: Monk
Brennan Sims: DiVincenzo
Defensive Player of the Year
Sean Corp: Victor Wembanyama
Laz Jackson: Wembanyama
Ben Gulker: Wembanyama
Brady Fredericksen: Wembanyama
Justin Lambregetse: Wembanyama
Wes Davenport: Chet Holmgren
Kyle Metz: Wembanyama
Blake Silverman: Wembanyama
Ben Quagliata: Wembanyama
Robbie Bettelon: Wembanyama
Brennan Sims: Bam Adebayo
Most Improved Player
Sean Corp: Victor Wembanyama
Laz Jackson: Scoot Henderson
Ben Gulker: Jaden Ivey
Brady Fredericksen: Jalen Williams
Wes Davenport: Ivey
Kyle Metz: Jonathan Kuminga
Blake Silverman: Jalen Johnson
Ben Quagliata: Ivey
Robbie Bettelon: Williams
Brennan Sims: RJ Barrett
Coach of the Year
Sean Corp: Mark Daigneault
Laz Jackson: Mike Budenholzer
Ben Gulker: Joe Mazzulla
Brady Fredericksen: Budenholzer
Justin Lambregetse: Budenholzer
Wes Davenport: Daigneault
Kyle Metz: Gregg Popovich
Blake Silverman: Taylor Jenkins
Ben Quagliata: Jamahl Mosley
Robbie Bettelon: Daigneault
Brennan Sims: Nick Nurse
Sean Corp: Oklahoma City Thunder over Boston Celtics
Laz Jackson: Oklahoma City Thunder over New York Knicks
Ben Gulker: Boston Celtics over Oklahoma City Thunder
Brady Fredericksen: Boston Celtics over Minnesota Timberwolves
Justin Lambregetse: Oklahoma City Thunder over New York Knicks
Wes Davenport: Oklahoma City Thunder over New York Knicks
Kyle Metz: Boston Celtics over Oklahoma City Thunder
Blake Silverman: Minnesota Timberwolves over New York Knicks
Ben Quagliata: New York Knicks over Dallas Mavericks
Robbie Bettelon: Oklahoma City Thunder over Boston Celtics
Brennan Sims: Boston Celtics over Oklahoma City Thunder
—
Whew, that was a lot, let us know your thoughts in the comments!
1. The betting line on Pistons wins this season is 25.5. Are you taking the over or the under and why?
2. For the Pistons to have success this season, which two returning players must make the biggest jump?
3. With new faces aplenty, which newcomer (players and coaches) do you have the highest expectations for?
4. Where will the Pistons finish in the Eastern Conference and will they make the play-in tournament?
BONUS ROUND!
Most Valuable Player:
Rookie of the Year:
Sixth Man of the Year:
Defensive Player of the Year:
Most Improved Player:
Coach of the Year:
NBA Finals Prediction: